Secret telegram
From: Amembassy New Delhi
To: Secretary State Washington DC
Subject: UN Role in
1. We interpret Prime Minister Gandhi's reply to UN
Secretary General as (A) polite, firm rejection of international mediation
between
2. The GOI seeks less to defuse tensions per se than
to use them to force the GOP toward a meaningful settlement. The GOI rejects
President Yahya's Cosmetic qte power transfer unqte blueprint it resists
delaying and diversionary international initiatives and it accepts the risk of'
Pakistani military reaction in force. On the Indian side the greatest danger of
further military escalation lies in an apparent GOI impression that crisis
resolution under current conditions of relative Indian restraint may prove unacceptably
prolonged.
3. We perceive no rpt no indications including those
cited reftel of significant moderation in GO] perspective. On contrary recent
evidences of' sustained Bengali alienation increasing Mukti Bahini effectiveness
continuing refugee influx and emerging West Pakistani political and economic
strains probably work to confirm GOI in firm policy. Any event we interpret GOI
response re presidential panel on South Asian relief more as reaffirmation of
firmness than sign of flexibility (e.g. Foreign Minister's statement November
19 reported New Delhi 18035).
4. With situation increasingly dynamic and critical
decision still pending our considered judgement is that only a clear signal of
irreversible GOP movement toward basic political settlement could really
moderate GOI and
5. In light of above the most promising formula for
terms of reference for SYG good offices as proposed reftel would be along
lines para 4C with mission to East Pakistan followed by consultation in
Islamabad and New Delhi in that order.
(A) Provided mission were quietly and expediently
proposed without association as is suggested, and (B) particularly if proposal
were accompanied by private assurances of SYG intention to promote dialogue
with Mujib. Even so GOI might prove unresponsive on basis (A) facts of
situation in East Pakistan already are well known to world, certainly to India
and (B) basic problem is between East and West Pakistan and its solution lies
in effecting change of policy in Islamabad.
6. Formulas proposed reftel paras 4A and D would
likely get mired in basic Indian objection to equation of
7. Formula likely to have best prospects with GOI
would variation of Para 4C which envisaged mission to East Pakistan and
Islamabad only, with possible subsequent visit to New Delhi held open pending
results in Pakistan.
8. Meanwhile there may be merit in GOP moving to
expedite the departure of its current High Commissioner in
Keating
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