Secret telegram
From: Amconsul Calcutta
To: Secretary State Washington DC
Subject: Bangladesh contacts
1. Summary: Qaiyum called on Political Officer
November 21 to make renewed plea that USG work on Yahya to release Mujib. He
said if Sheikh not released soon, communists would wrest BD leadership from
moderates, which not in interest of BD, GOP, GOI or USG. Release, even if
Sheikh restricted to West Pakistan, would cool situation considerably and allow
peaceful solution to be found, since only Mujib has power to provide Yahya with
face-saving way out of crisis. Qaiyum claimed that 301 worried about leftist
takeover and would like see confederation solution. He suggested that it in
best interest of Pakistan for Yahya to step down and hand over power to another
military figure saying Yahya "has no right to destroy both parts of
Pakistan." Qaiyum warned that time is running out for GOP leadership.
Mukti Bahini increasingly successful, getting "all help" from India,
and BD leaders expect military victory in east within next two months. End
summary.
2. After hiatus of one month (reftel), Qaiyum called
on Poloff November 21. When Poloff expressed surprise and recalled stories in
press that BD men were forbidden to see foreign diplomats (see Calcutta 2723),
Qaiyum said stories were erroneous, and added that he expected no rpt no
trouble from BDG, Awami League or GOI for having seen Poloff again. However, he
later remarked that he did not care what anyone said about this contact and he
would continue to visit Poloff if and when he so desired.
3. Qaiyum said he had come to see Poloff because he
had an urgent and vital request to make, i.e. that USG redouble its efforts to
convince Yahya to free Sheikh Mujib. He said he realized USG had made efforts
in past with Yahya, but as far as he could tell, efforts
had produced naught. He asked if Poloff knew present
status of Sheikh, and was told that, as far as Poloff aware, Mujib still alive
and under trial. Qaiyum said that if Sheikh were released, "heat will be
off." He said that even if Mujib were confined to West Pakistan after
release, crisis would cool and "many of us" would try to go and talk
to Sheikh. He noted that Newsweek senior editor De Borchgrave in talking to BD
"Acting President" Nazrul Islam on November 19(see
good politician and understands what is best for our
country."
4. Qaiyum said he thought best solution for
5. Qaiyum said if Yahya cannot see that he and
6. Qaiyum said "Acting President" Nazrul
Islam is anti-communist, as are most Awami League members, including Mujib.
Moderates were coming under increasing pressure from BD leftists, Russian
communists and Soviets, and "without Sheikh we cannot stand up to pressure
much longer." He said that power struggle for eventual leadership of BD
already underway and that leftists receiving considerable outside assistance,
while others getting nothing. He said there many aspirants for top positions,
which creating increasing dissension within AL, as well as between AL and
other potential leaders such as MB commanders and leftists.
7. Qaiyum argued that Indians also worried about
future leadership of BD, and especially about prospects for independent BD
without Mujib, because they fear leftists would eventually gain control and
that this would spill over into
8. During current situation in east, Qaiyum said
long-awaited Mukti Bahini offensive underway and highly successful. He claimed
MB controlled most of countryside in many districts, including Dinajpur,
Mymensingh, northern Sylhet, Comilla and Barisal. MB had not attempted to take
major towns because they too well defended, and expected army to pull back from
border into towns and cantonments in near future. He noted fresh MB drive
"nearby." Actually he may have been referring to major military
activity reportedly going on in Jessore district. Qaiyum said MB now has two
Divisions of "regular troops", consisting in large measure of former
EBR, EPR and police, and total strength of about 100,000. He said BDG expected
Pak army in east to be "wiped out" in two months or less. He said MB
in final push would be supported by Indian air force and acknowledged that, as
of now, MB receiving "all help" from India. In response question,
Qaiyum said all rpt all MB military assistance coming directly from India.
9. Poloff reminded Qaiyum he had asked about MB
policy concerning attacks on United Nations' vessels and vehicles, and
inquired if Qaiyum had yet been able to talk to MB "frogman"
commander on subject (see
10. Saying he had recently made extensive tour of
border areas, Qaiyum likened situation in east to that in
11. Other items Qaiyum noted in passing included (A)
GOI may recognize BD if Willy Brandt's effort with Yahya fails or is otherwise
rejected by GOP; (B) Maulana Bhashani left Calcutta suddenly evening November
20 for visit to New Delhi; (C) He wondered why Indian High Commissioner to
Islamabad returned to New Delhi suddenly immediately after presenting his
credentials to Yahya; (D) GOI Fonsec Kaul and other high officials are
currently in Calcutta talking to BDG reps.
12. Comment: Qaiyum did not specify that he was
talking for anyone but himself, but he clearly implied he was reflecting views
of "moderates", among whom he included Nazrul Islam (comment: see
Calcutta 2870) and apparently expressed concern about increased pressure from
leftist wing. When taken in conjunction with his statement that GOI prefers
"right-wing" BD leadership and prepared accept confederation,
suggests that GOI also seriously worried about its ability prevent leftist
takeover. Mujib remains key to solution.
Gordon
Source: