Washington DC

Secret November 19,1971

Monday Brief for the President

 

Military Situation in East Pakistan: Our consulate in Dacca has picked up a report that the guerrillas are planning a "mini-Tet" to commence within the next month. Among other things, the report in­dicates that this offensive would include greatly increased operations in Dhaka in the hope of triggering military repression that would cre­ate world-wide revulsion and thereby further weaken foreign support for Yahya. Other reports have the Pak army planning a new dry sea­son offensive of their oft against the MB

It is impossible to determine the validity of reports such as this. What does seem clear, however, is that the guerrilla movement is developing at a faster pace than many observers expected. Our Consul General in Dhaka concludes that, given this development, it begins to appear that India might achieve such major objectives as pressure on the Islamabad Government, weakening of Pakistan, or even an independent Bangladesh by simply continuing its present activities without escalating them into actual warfare. In the meantime, Indian action on the borders is drawing Pakistani forces there and allowing the guerrillas to operate more freely in the interior where they have already established their own administration in some areas.

 

Saunders/ Hoskinson

 

 

Source: Bangladesh Liberation War and the Nixon House 1971, Enayetur Rahim and Joyce L. Rahim, Pustaka Dhaka, p – 378