Department of State
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20520
September 22, 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR MR. HENRY A.
KISSINGER
THE WHITE HOUSE
Subject: Situation Report:
India/Pakistan
Situation in Pakistan
On September 19 the Election Commission in
Islamabad announced that byelections
will be held between November 25 and December 9 to fill seats declared vacated
in the National Assembly and the East Pakistan Provincial Assembly, thereby
firming up Yahya's transfer of power timetable outlined in his June 28 speech.
Other related developments since that speech are as follows:
- September 18 announcement that the yet-to-be
promulgated constitution can be amended by a simple majority of National
Assembly delegates provided this includes "consensus of all the federating
units" and subject to the President's approval.
- release of list of cleared and disqualified Awami
League MNAs-elect and MPAs-elect, whereby 88 of the 167 Awami League MNAs-elect
and 94 of the 288 MPAs-elect have been given clean bills of health. Of the
"cleared" Awami League MNAs only 15 or so have come forward to
cooperate with the GOP.
- appointment of Dr. A.M. Malik, a Bengali, as
Governor to replace Lt. General Tikka Khan and the formation of a ten-man
civilian cabinet of ministers, including two former Awami Leaguers, announced
earlier this month. Although the cabinet members are generally conservative,
undistinguished and with limited political appeal, its formation and the
appointment of Malik himself constitute a positive first step away from a
strictly military approach to the East Pakistan situation.
- a general amnesty announced September 4 which does
not, however, apply to Awami League MNAs-elect or MPAs-elect against whom
criminal proceedings have been initiated. (Dacca indicates that arrests of
intellectuals are continuing and that only one political figure has been
released so far under the amnesty provision. suggesting it is of dubious
credibility.)
Meanwhile, the refugee flow has continued at a ratio
of 15,000 to 40,000 a day over the past two months, according to Indian
figures. Probably close to 7.5 million of the total of 8.76 million refugees
are Hindus, meaning that roughly three-quarters of the Hindu population of East Pakistan has left.
East Pakistan Relief
We have heard from several sources that Bangla Desh
leaders and, according to a clandestine source, the Mukti Bahini have decided
not to disrupt the UN food distribution program in East Pakistan. Guerrilla sector
commanders are reported to have met in Calcutta and decided to exempt the
UN relief effort from attack on the grounds that the UN is not likely to permit
its activities to be of assistance to the Martial Law Administration.
In discussions in Washington September 17, U Thant's
Special Assistant for East Pakistan Relief, Paul Marc Henry, impressed us with
his grasp of the situation and his activist view of the UN role in monitoring,
prodding the GOP and even undertaking direct food distribution operations in
certain areas if necessary. We agreed on the need to identify clearly all UN
personnel and transport, to try to mobilize the private sector for food
transport, and to develop a new statement of relief requirements. We also
agreed that in view of the importance of keeping the UN operation "above
the battle," inland transport financed with international assistance,
including boats and trucks, should not be used to carry anything except relief
goods, even on return trips. Finally, we told Mr. Henry we would finance two
helicopters to increase UN mobility in East Pakistan.
Under an agreement reached on September 17, the US is providing an additional
210,000 tons of foodgrain and high protein food blends for East Pakistan. The approximate value of US relief assistance to East Pakistan is now about $135 million.
Of this total, our dollar assistance to date is $13.9 million, food assistance
is valued at approximately $107.6 million, and local currency (rupee)
assistance is the equivalent of $13.5 million.
Contributions by other nations to the UN relief
program in East Pakistan continue to lag, however, and to date contributions
amount to only about $13 million.
Pakistan Debt Relief
The World Bank is convening an informal meeting of
aid-to Pakistan donors on October 2.
Although this meeting will ostensibly be called to consider relief needs, it
will also consider Pakistan's request for debt relief.
The current six month moratorium on payment of about $60 million on
government-to-government debt is due to expire on October 31. The US share of this is
approximately $10 million. In a formal note to the IBRD, the GOP has requested
relief from debt payment but has not specified how much. Bank officials
informally opine that most Consortium members are likely to accept some
rescheduling of the approximately $60 million unilaterally withheld by Pakistan during the current
moratorium but believe that if the GOP's debt rescheduling request is
substantially larger, the majority of Consortium participants will object.
India-Pakistan
Both India and Pakistan are in a high state of
readiness to respond to an attack or, in some sectors, to initiate hostilities
on short notice. Our estimate is that for the immediate future India will continue and increase
its political and military support for the Mukti Bahini but will not openly
intervene militarily and is unlikely to grant formal recognition to the
"Bangla Desh Government." Similarly, for the immediate future Pakistan is likely to continue and
increase its defensive preparations and efforts to expand its forces and may
begin to infiltrate covert forces into Kashmir and Eastern India, but will avoid an overt
attack. Present intentions on both sides could change rapidly, however, if
there is a significant improvement in the effectiveness of the Mukti Bahini, a
rapid increase in the flow of refugees or the execution of Mujib. Over time,
covert activities or the continuing incursions and exchanges of fire across the
East
Pakistan border could he interpreted by either side as a casus belli. Also, in
a matter of weeks, the military preparations on each side are likely to reach a
level at which the benefit of a first strike could be such as to trigger an
attack by either side without warning.
An explosion derailed an Indian train close to the Pakistan border the night of
September 15, killing one and injuring 17. A similar explosion occurred August
14, and in both cases the Indian press has accused Pakistani saboteurs.
Our information about President Yahya's brief visit
to Iran September 14-15 is still
quite limited. The visit apparently involved an attempt to elicit Iranian
support in the current crisis. Pakistan had reportedly hoped for
both material assistance and a formal public announcement by the Shah that Iran would aid Pakistan in the event of Indo-Pak
hostilities. Although probably agreeing to extend limited economic or military
aid, the Shah held off a formal military commitment and instead stressed the
need for peaceful solutions to Indo-Pakistan problems and to the dispute
between East and West Pakistan. In a conversation with Ambassador Farland,
President Yahya was singularly uncommunicative about the visit.
Bangla Desh Delegation to UN
Although the exact composition of a Bangla Desh
"delegation" to the UN General Assembly is not clear, it may be
headed by Abu Sayeed Choudhury, ex-Chief Justice of the East Pakistan High
Court and former Vice Chancellor of Dacca University. who is now Bangla Desh
representative in London. Reportedly no Bangla Desh
"ministers" will be included. The Pakistan Embassy has raised the
question of a Bangla Desh delegation with us and has been informed that (a) we
have received no visa requests from Bangla Desh figures although we are aware
from press reports such may be forthcoming; (b) that such visa requests will be
considered on a case by case basis; (c) that generally we do not exclude
representatives of various dissident groups that have no official standing in
our eyes from travel to the UN unless they are otherwise disqualified under our
laws; and (d) representatives of such groups coming to the UN are only issued
ordinary visitors' visas.
Refugee Relief
Authorization has been granted for 40,000 additional
metric tons of high-value foodstuffs for Pakistani refugee children in India and for child feeding in East Pakistan. Added to the 30,000 tons
authorized earlier this summer, this amount will carry the UNICEF child-feeding
program for the subcontinent into calendar 1972, divided evenly between India and Pakistan. The projected share for India of this added assistance
through UNICEF brings our total contribution for refugee relief to $79 million.
At the request of UNHCR, the US is allocating the remaining
$5 million of its $30.5 million in cash for refugee relief as follows: $2
million for blankets to be procured in the US; $1.5 million for
tarpaulins and plastic shelter material to be procured by UNICEF; and $1.5
million for vehicles already ordered by UNICEF but not heretofore funded. The
GOI refugee total was 8.76 million as of September 20, indicating a rise in the
flow to over 40,000 a day as against 14,000 a day in the first half of
September.
US Public and Congressional Attitudes
Congressman Peter Frelinghuysen will visit India and Pakistan in late September/ early
October. He is interested in all aspects of the problem and has offered to try
to help in any way he can in regard to Administration policy on South Asia.
Senator Edward Kennedy has informed us that he
wishes to reconvene the Refugee Subcommittee hearings on the India-Pakistan
situation in early October, probably October 1 or 4. He has inquired about the
availability of AID Deputy Administrator Maurice Williams, Special Assistant
for Refugee and Migration Affairs Frank Kellogg, and Deputy Assistant Secretary
for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Christopher Van Hollen.
Theodore L. Eliot, Jr.
Executive Secretary
Clearances:
NEA/PAF
- Mr Laingen
NEA/INC
- Mr. Schneider
S/R
- Mr. Kellogg
AID-NESA
- Mr. Rees
NEA
- Mr. Van Hollen
NEA
- Mr Sisco
NEA/RA
- Mr. Schiff
SIPRS
- Mr King
IO
- Miss Sell
NEA/INC:
RGSmith:am
Source: The American Papers - Secret and Confidential India. Pakistan. Bangladesh Documents 1965- 1973, The University
Press Limited, p. 670-673