Department of State

AIRGRAM

CONFIDENTIAL A-247

TO: DEPARTMENT OF STATE

FROM: AMEMBASSY RAWALPINDI

DATE: AUGUST 31, 1970

SUB: CONSTITUENT POSTS REPORT ON CURRENT POLITICAL SCENE

REF: RAWALPINDI A-246

Attached are reports prepared by Consulate Generals Dacca, Karachi and Lahore regarding developments in the electoral campaign and related aspects of the political scene. These reports provided the basis for the countrywide assessment which the Embassy submitted in the ref airgram.

Farland

EAST PAKISTAN: ELECTIONEERING AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS: JULY 15 - AUGUST 17

SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION

Key campaign-related developments during reporting period were: (a) extensive flooding throughout Province beginning in latter part of July which disrupted electoral campaign and which was cited by President Yahya Khan as primary reason underlying his decision announced August 15 to postpone NA elections from October 5 to December 7; (b) Yahya's extended East Wing visit from August 4 to 16 during which he met with local political figures, held cabinet meetings, surveyed flood situation and finally announced decision re postponement; (c) council session of EPNAP(L) in Khulna August 1 and 2 at which former MNA Masihur Rahman elected General Secretary in place of Mohammad Toaha who quit party two months previously, and at which party affirmed that it would participate "conditionally" in coming elections; (d) first "national" convention of Ataur Rahman Khan's fledgling National Progressive League which was highlighted by election of party officers and change of name to "National League;" (e) continued labor unrest, marked by class four GOEP employees strike which lasted until first week in August, and internecine labor violence as several months of tension at Mammoth Adamjee Jute Mills near Dacca culminated in tragic clash between rival unions following plant referendum which left ten dead; and (f) election postponement itself which enthusiastic ally

accepted by non-Awami League politicos, generally accepted by public as appropriate response to flood problem, and apparently accepted with resignation by front-running AL which was boxed in on issue and which lacked any real option other than to accede to Presidential decision. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION

PARTY DEVELOPMENTS

A. NAP(L)

Election of opportunist Masihur Rahman to post of General Secretary of EPNAP(L), albeit reportedly reflecting support for his candidacy by so-called "Naxalite" faction of Matin/Alauddin (Dacca 1485), created a pro-election facade for party that was absent while Toaha nominally in number two position. Party image has suffered from vacillation re election participation and even if party fully commits itself to election campaign (which unlikely due to feuds between disparate factions) its prospects do not appear bright. Party has not, contrary to July 17 prediction by pro-NAP(L) Bengali daily Paigam, embarked on any "Farland go home" campaign (Dacca 1350, see also Dacca 1427 reporting allegations against Ambassador by pro-Toaha Bengali weekly Gana Shaukti -"People's Force"); For umpteenth time Bhashani announced August 17 indefinite postponement of long anticipated (since really 1969) peasants march on Dacca, as well as of peasant-worker conference originally scheduled to be held in Dacca September 8, ostensibly on basis that disruptions caused by floods rendered march and conference unfeasible for time being.

B. PNL, BNL, Etc. (See NPL)

Two day convention of NPL saw organization's name changed to "National League," with central party unit to be known as "Pakistan National League" or "PNL" (and with provincial units to be known by name of province followed by "National League" e.g., "Bangla National League" or "BNL" for East Pakistan Branch, see Dacca A-069 of August 17, 1970). Former East Pak Chief Minister Ataur Rahman Khan who founded NPL was elected President of both PNL and BNL, with ex-MNA Shah Azizur Rahman and ex-MPA All Ahad elected General Secretaries of Central and East Pakistan party units respectively. Despite pretensions as all-Pakistan party, National League remains overwhelmingly an East Pak-based party. Party's draft manifesto indicates that it very close to Awami League on provincial autonomy issue, although economic program may be further to left than that of AL. On foreign policy party may reflect pre-dilections of Ataur Rahman Khan, who is Vice President of the local Pak-Soviet Friendship Society and who left Dacca August 13 to visit USSR as guest of Soviets. Although NL new, organizationally weak and lacking mass support, it does however possess a number of prominent personalities (mostly AL "dropouts") and a small but active student arm, and according to one NL leader party is banking heavily on picking up additional disaffected Awami Leaguers who fail to get AL nominations.

C. Awami League

As front-runner at time of election postponement AL reportedly has most to lose by delay in polls, although this is debatable since AL relatively better funded and thus presumably more capable of "lasting out" extended electoral campaign. As yet no Awami League leader has gone beyond what Mujib said when he "declined comment' when approached for his reaction to postponement, which we take to indicate that the AL has grudgingly but silently accepted Yahya's decision (see Dacca 1566 and 1586). Since postponement announced, AL as well as other parties appears to have gone into low gear re finalizing selection of candidates for NA and PA seats. Other key AL developments were: victory of union backed by Jatiya Sramik League (JSL), its labor affiliate, in referendum at Adamjee Jute Mills July 31 (Dacca 1478); arrest of Chittagong AL General Secretary M.A. Aziz July 18 for violation of MLRS (Dacca 1373 and 1426: he was released on hail August 15); and August 14 inauguration of AL's English language newspaper The People as a daily (it formerly was a weekly) which should enhance party's propaganda capabilities.

D. Other Patties

In recent conversations with leaders of parties other than Awami League, Congen officers noted two persistent themes: (1) their anxiety to have elections postponed, ostensibly on grounds later date more suitable climatically and likely to result in more meaningful voter turnout, but obviously in hope that postponement would allow them more time to organize and in hope that their campaigns would pick up momentum whereas that of the high-flying AL would falter; and (2) handwringing over problem of campaign financing, which in some cases was followed by direct pitch for US financial assistance (and customary rebuff from US). Although demand to in effect lengthen duration of campaign not consistent with woeful accounts of various parties financial plights, this incongruity blatantly ignored by politicos concerned.

E. Alliances

Although talk of various alliances continues among right wing "Islam pasand" parties on one hand, and among more secular-cum-left-leaning parties on other hand, nothing concrete in the way of formal electoral alliances has emerged. On the other hand it is virtually taken for granted now in East Pak political circles that although AL is foresalling pre-election alliances (see Dacca 1363 oil NAP(R) reaction to non-alliance posture of AL), it is planning for post-election coalition-making, most likely with Daultana's CML. (This was affirmed by both Awami League and non-Awami League sources, latter group including EPNAP(R) President Muzaffar Ahmed.)

LABOR

Seemingly endemic labor unrest continued to erupt sporadically throughout province. Labour management disputes took form of strike and lockout at Latif Bawany Jute Mills near Dacca and public sector confrontation between GOEP and class four (Menial) employees who commenced several week long strike July 7 when demands not met (Dacca 1283 and 1302). Internecine labor clashes involving politicized unions reached pinnacle of sorts with bloody clash at Adamjee Jute Mills August 1 following victory Awami League-affiliated union in referendum previous day to determine sole bargaining agent for workers there. At present three political parties reportedly have labor affiliates, NAP(L) (East Pak Sramik Federation), Awami League (Jatiya Sramik League), and Jamaat-i-Islami (Pakistan Kalyan Sramik Parishad; i.e., Pak Workers" Welfare Association), and clashes between there groups as well as between them and non-political unions are likely to continue as they each seek to extend their influence among labor. (In recent months the JSL has appeared most active in attempting to "muscle into labor.")

LAW AND ORDER

Law and order situation remains relatively stable in province, despite occasional outbursts of violence such as the labor clash at Adamjee Jute Mills, student demonstrations and clashes, and most recently, what by most accounts appears to have been a "police riot" as police over-reacted to a minor incident at Dacca stadium August 14 (Dacca 1563).

GENERAL MOOD

At present the public still appear pre-occupied by floods and flood relief work, with issue being exploited to utmost by politicos. Election postponement appears to have been accepted stocially by public (as far as we can discern) who resigned to its inevitability due to floods and press play which forecasted change in election date (Dacca 1504, 1516, 1536, 1538 and 1552). Although cynics take "I told you so" stance and continue to view further postponements as likely, they are relatively few in number. Yahya's bona fides remain untarnished since delay in holding elections is held to minimum and elections scheduled soon after Eid. AL likely fears that delay may allow rivals time to regroup in hopes of attriting AL, and AL supporters and others have expressed private fears that any delay may increase possibility of unexpected happening which might somehow forestall elections indefinitely or other wise interrupt to transition- to representative civilian government.

DACCA: WSButcher

KARACHI: POLITICAL ASSESSMENT AS OF AUGUST 21

SUMMARY/GENERAL VIEW

Diminution of political activity, almost a pause, which typified Consular district political atmosphere prior Yahya's July 28 speech continues. Yahya" August 15 announcement postponement of elections was received resignedly in Karachi. Unusually heavy rains, almost daily since August 14, have focused attention of many

Karachiities on coping with problems of daily existence. Unfortunately, rains have not dampened stridency of local press, nor the constant flood of statements for the record by all groups of people-loving, Islam-loving orientation. Overall character Consular district politics this period has been one of rocking along as before without any significant event occurring to change scene appreciably. Forecast for next month would seem to be for more of the same now that most polling put over to December. END SUMMARY/GENERAL VIEW

THE SIND

Reports of gradual accretions to PPP strength in Sind (Karachi 1402) continue. Although press also carrying announcements defection minor Sind figures from PPP, impression here PPP gaining more than losing. No evidence yet PPP being affected h% - tensions between its rural conservative adherents and leftist city-dwelling followers (para 2 Karachi 1179).

BALUCHISTAN

Baluchistan picture complicated by Achakzai's formation July 27 of NAP Pashtoonkhawa (Pashtoon-speaking segment). NAP(R) now split between Achakzai's followers and Baluchi followers of Zehri, Mengal and Marl. In the shadow of this Prince Karim of Kalat has banded his followers into an independent group which may seek a home with either APML or Achakzai's NAP. APML meeting to be held in Quetta September 4 may provide fillip to party's activities in Baluchistan.

KARACHI

Karachi scene relatively quiescent with Bhutto, Brohi, Lari, Khuhro and other political lights spending much of this period out of Karachi on hustings. Karachi NAP(L) beset by internal dissension now considered by some non-factor in Karachi politics. Benefit of this development, and a marginal benefit at best, is most likely to be the PPP. August 14 student clash, sparked by exchange of pro and anti-socialist slogans, of Mazar of Quaid-i-Azam resulted in subsequent arrest of Islami-Jamiat-i-Tulba leader, Aymatullah, and Muslim Students Federation's Shahanshah Hussain. Both groups plan demonstrations for release of their leaders August 28. Authorities action in arresting student leaders appears to bear out regime's intention implement Yahya's July 28 speech "no nonsense" admonition. Arrests were generally publically supported because site of fracas considered disrespectful to Pakistan's founder and his memorial. However, difuse student restlessness continues, and if more students run afoul of authorities and are arrested resentment may build on both side. In similar vein, although not purely political, Karachi labor scene restive in some areas. Strikes at Landhi Machine Tool Factory, Siemens Gallant and Hashmi Can continue along with sporadic interruptions various textile mills.

NATURE OF ELECTIONEERING

The vituperative, clamorous, emotional/ideological battle continues to be waged by spokesmen of various groups. Despite clamor regarding principle, impression is that, except for Karachi, election contest will be fought on local bases in which traditional factors and strength of local candidates will be the determinants of the outcome. Lines of left vs. right, Islam vs. Socialism are becoming more and more blurred as protagonists reply irresponsibly to opponents attacks. Local example of this is the Jamaat's casting of Bhutto as a CIA agent out to destroy Islam. Economic issues have not loomed large as topics for electioneering period July 20 - August 21.

OUTLOOK

Majority views remains that election will be held as scheduled. Aftermath elections uncertain. Some expect Constituent Assembly will not accomplish its task, will be presented with Yahya constitution and option to approve, or will be dissolved and have constitution submitted to popular referendum.

KARACHI: MVanOrder

LAHORE: POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT JULY 21 TO AUGUST 21

SUMMARY

Significant political developments since last report have been: (a) resurgence of activity of Bhutto and PPP in Punjab; (b) collapse of NAP(R) as political group in Punjab; (c) developing signs of de facto unity of left behind PPP candidates; (d) at least momentary stagnation of Khan Qaiyum Khan Muslim League here; (e) advent of aggressive Nur Khan on campaign trail for Council Muslim League; (f ) diminution, but not disappearance, of Islam vs. Socialism controversy as controlling issue in political debate; (g) polarisation of labor along left/right/center lines, with probable consequence of lessened possibility for exercise of political clout in elections and after. None of these development, however, leads us yet to fundamental change of previous assessments, i.e., CML is front-runner in Punjab and constitution-making looms as formidable task with uncertain outcome. END SUMMARY

BHUTTO AND PPP (Lahore A-58 and A-60)

Resurgence of Bhutto and PPP in Punjab in past six weeks-while not yet making PPP major force here - has created considerable politial excitement and apparently caught front-running Council Muslim League by surprise. Latter, which had previously concentrated its fire on threat from Qaiyum and wrecking potential of

Jamaat-i-Islami, is now taking Bhutto seriously and attacking him head on. CML, 'Ahich has not commented on election postponement, is said to be happy with delay and opportunity it provides to regroup forces against Bhutto. Latter's new strength in Punjab coming from two sources - conservative landlords (still few in number) who are on outs with CML and see chance to pick up margin of support in their districts by riding coattails of popular Bhutto, who has to some degree stirred tenants and peasants. These landlords may also think they are buying insurance by lining up with only major party that has not called for further limitations on landholdings. Second source of Bhutto's new strength comes from realignments of urban leftists in Lahore and Multan. Movement began with defection of Qasuri from NAP(R) (Lahore A-55) and is rumoured to be spreading through some elements of NAP(L) (see below). While new support for Bhutto is creating impression of gathering strength, it is also causing major strain between left and right in PPP over party policy, candidacies and image. While we hesitate to predict political future of man who has gone through such wide swings in Punjab during past 18 months, these strains could deflate his balloon as fast as it has filled. Working for Bhutto here is Deja Vu quality of Punjabi pols (except for Nur Khan - see below), his role in opposition to Ayub and his credentials on Kashmir; and his stance for the little fellow. Working against him are his reputation for opportunism and unreliability and fact he is not himself Punjabi. (We don't know which side of ledger to put Bhutto's reputation for personal pecadilloes).

HAS KHAN QAIYUM PEAKED?

In spite of persistent rumors - and indeed claims by party workers - that Qaiyum League has official support through Qirilbash, party seems to be making little headway beyond its initial splash in Punjab. Party is rumored to be short of cash with Hassan Mahmud, Noons and Gilanis said to be reluctant to throw good money after bad. With delay in elections to December, there is more than time for Qaiyum to gather new momentum, especially if CML should appear to be buckling under pressure from Bhutto. For moment, however, Qaiyum is running at best poor second to CML and perhaps even third after Bhutto. Logically this would suggest desirability of Qaiyum and Daultana burying ancient enmity, but as yet there are no signs of this.

Big change in life of CML in Punjab has been advent of Nur Khan on campaign trail. Former Governor appears to be distinct asset as crowd-gatherer and figure who can make claim to genuine social concerns, in contrast to barnacled CML leadership and in competition with Bhutto. Nur Khan's face-lifting efforts on behalf of CML evident last weekend when he unveiled CML Six Point economic and social manifesto, which was in mill before Nur Khan joined party, but which bears unmistakable Nur Khan imprint in upbeat projections on economic and social problems. Nur Khan's outlook on some domestic and foreign policy question are at variance with CML leadership and could foreshadow difficulties ahead, although cynics see Daultana and Shaukat handling Nur the novitiate with dispatch if it comes to that.

ISLAM VS. SOCIALISM

After the emotional and highly success outpouring of support of Islam, which Maudoodi engineered on glory of Islam Day (May 31) edge has been taken off Islam vs. Socialism controversy, although it still figures prominently in political rhetoric. Maudoodi himself seems to have pulled in horns slightly, perhaps as result of CML resistance to JI efforts toward supremacy as guardian of Islam. One consequence of what might be termed Maudoodi's overkill has been to open way for Bhutto's return to Punjab, where for brief period it appeared Maudoodi had eliminated him. Issue is still present and could resume earlier fervor as elections draw nearer and right divines necessity to pull out all stops again.,

ASSESSMENT

New ingredients in political pot here are in stage of fermentation and as yet have not presented strong enough trend to alter earlier assessment that CML is front-runner. However, situation that Daultana has always feared could be in making - i.e., that late demagogic appeals to rural dissatisfaction could upset carefully constructed and tradition-oriented landlord network of CML. That Bhutto has now become No. I target for almost all CML speakers in Punjab suggests both headway he is making and basic CML insecurity over depth of its hold on people. On constitution-making, their has been little explicit discussion of issues, except that general public posture in favor of strong center and in opposition to Mujib's Six Points is more evident than ever. However, following on One Unit break-up there is new undercurrent of interest within Punjab in maximum provincial autonomy as system which will best protect interest and wealth of Punjab. Projected budget surplus for Punjab of several crore rupees is only one manifestation, in eyes of Punjabi-firsters, of advantages weaker center might hold. CML/Awami League/NAP(R) axis as constitution-writing and governing coalition is still very much alive in CML's private speculations about future, but denials are ever more fervent publicly, suggesting continuing risks of any appearance of softness toward Bengali demands.

LAHORE: PDConstable

Source: The American Papers- Secret and Confidential India.Pakistan.Bangladesh Documents 1965-1973, The University Press Limited, p.401-416